Now that we know Dexter Strickland is out for the season our attention turns how the Heels will adjust to losing the team quickest guard and best perimeter defender
First of all, the most popular question since UNC confirmed Strickland’s status is whether Leslie McDonald’s redshirt might be reconsidered. My gut feeling is this will not impact that but obviously it is a possibility. The problem with bringing McDonald back is he is not ready now and could be weeks away from that being the case. Secondly, McDonald doesn’t really help the team in the two areas Strickland was most valuable which are defense and backup point guard. Obviously UNC is a lot thinner now and another quality player would be helpful but at this point the only real issue with depth is foul trouble and this team is not foul prone. If there is another injury to any other wing players or Kendall Marshall, the Heels would be totally screwed. In short, even with the injury, there is no compelling reason to rush McDonald back for what probably amounts to 15-18 games at best.
With McDonald not being an option, the roster UNC has is the hand Roy Williams will play with the rest of the season barring additional injuries. That means Reggie Bullock will move from the bench into the starting line up at wing guard. P.J. Hairston is now the only available sub on the wing. James Michael McAdoo and Justin Watts will continue to see minutes spelling John Henson and Tyler Zeller. Since Strickland is the backup point guard, that means Kendall Marshall will be asked to play 36 minutes or more in competitive games. Stillman White was offered a scholarship late last spring just for this eventuality and although he is nowhere near the caliber to provide major minutes, White will be called on to hold down the fort for 3-4 possessions per half. Marshall will have to be smart on defense, not get himself in foul trouble and keep himself healthy.
The overall impact of losing Strickland to the team is a change in the dynamics of both the offense and defense. Strickland gave UNC a quick perimeter defender who could keep either the opposing point or wing guard in check. Without him, Bullock will have a tall task in filling the void. The dropoff from Strickland to Bullock on the defensive end is not huge. The problem lies with Strickland and Bullock being different types of defenders. Strickland’s quickness and ability to chase around screens made him very tough for any point/wing guard to get free from. Strickland could also keep these kinds of guards in front of him. Bullock does not possess Strickland’s speed though I do think he really works hard on the on the defensive end. He will have more trouble will smaller, quicker players but aside from that his length and size will bother many opposing guards who are generally smaller. Another options is using Harrison Barnes to guard quicker backcourt personnel. This is what Roy Williams did vs Virginia Tech in having Barnes guard Dorenzo Hudson. It turned out to be effective and it could be again in future match-ups.
On the offensive end, it is commonly held that Bullock gives UNC more production. In my opinion it is not that simple. While Bullock is certainly a better three point shooter, Strickland has been very effective shooting the mid-range jumper when available. He has also given the Heels some speed on the fastbreak. Strickland could go end-to-end in a manner reminiscent of Ty Lawson. Losing that, considering UNC’s preferred pace, is a problematic. Bullock, on the other hand, gives UNC another three point shooter on the court. I also would not sell Bullock short on his ability to score aside from three point shooting. He doesn’t have Strickland’s speed but I think he is capable of being a scorer rather than just a shooter. Bullock will need to be more aggressive as well as use his size to give the Heels more backcourt rebounding.
Overall, it is almost impossible to judge totally how this will play out which is why we watch the games. Based on a fair amount of statistical evidence, UNC is better on offense and the defense is acceptable with Bullock in the line alongside Marshall and the Big Three. In fact UNC’s hope for winning anything has always ridden on Marshall and the Big Three. Not that Strickland or Bullock aren’t important but neither are at the top of the list. From the depth perspective, there is little doubt this hurts but it is not a dealbreaker. The 2005 team operated with this type of thin roster and almost no real point guard backup. Quentin Thomas was just plain awful as a freshman so it was all Raymond Felton all the time. Yes, Melvin Scott did play some point but overall this team is dealing with the same setup in terms of personnel.
For the second season in a row, UNC is dealing with a personnel loss mid-season. Losing Some Other Kid last season was a blessing in disguise, the removal of a player no one wanted. Losing Strickland is the complete opposite in every sense imaginable. No one liked SOK, everyone likes Strickland which is another discussion for another time on how perversely unfair life can be sometimes. The question is how the Heels respond in the general sense. Having a week before the next game helps since there is time for Roy to make the necessary adjustments in practice to account for the loss of a key player. More than that, we will hear the standard fare from players, coaches and media alike about stepping up, pulling together, etc, etc, etc. Where this team is concerned, this sort of thing could be the necessary catalyst to resolve the “lack of natural intensity” issue. On Thursday night, the Heels had already stepped up their game by the time Strickland was injured. However there was no drop off in the level of play after Strickland went out.
Without Strickland, UNC will need multiple players to do a little more in certain areas to compensate for his absence. Probably the most important is more activity on defense and if there was ever a time to see Harrison Barnes really live up to the hype, now would be the time. The question at this point is how much this ultimately damages UNC’s title hopes? Probably some or at the very least it narrows the margin of error some. UNC ceiling this season still depends on the play of the Big Three and Kendall Marshall, if Reggie Bullock can be a suitable substitute for Strickland then it still might be enough.
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Biggest hurt is Strick’s added dimension of speed and athleticism in transition, plus the impact on depth. Marshall was going to play 36+ min this time of year anyway.
just awful news. he’s really going to be missed on both ends.
ugh.
just playing devil’s advocate, since we dont follow other programs with half the intensity…
Strick wasnt 100% over the ankle, played vs FSU. went through the hard practices(i assume). any overcompensation for the ankle?
AND, what program has had 3 ACLs in a 4 yr/1 month period?
even Robbie Hummel had but two.
Strickland’s loss will certainly provide fodder for fans and media to chew on, and I would expect more of the same drama involving season expectations, projections, and conditional qualifiers that we had after the FSU game. After all, reactions these days tend to run in 1 or 2-game cycles.
The truth is we won’t really know the effect, or how the team will compensate, until they’ve had some time to establish a whole new rhythm see how everyone reacts.
Do I think this has hurt their Final Four chances? Probably so. But the final word is far from being written on how UNC will look 8 or 10 games from now, or in the NCAAT. And yes, the season just got that much more intriguing.
And, no doubt, the focus will be on the players to step up but here’s where Roy Williams must do the same. There will be adjustments to make in the rotation strategy , preserving energy, maybe they will have to slow down a bit here and there or change the types of plays they run. But if coach’s experience in dealing with injuries counts for anything, the Heels should be in pretty good shape.
Bullock has shown a commitment to playing defense. He fights to stay with his man and he is great at using his height to keep the opponent from getting off an uncontested jumpshot. He’s only average when it comes to stopping dribble penetration which means there will be more pressure on Henson and Zeller to block shots if a guard gets past Bullock and tries to go to the rack. There will also be more pressure on the other perimeter defenders to stay alert in case that guard decides to kick it back out. The team should be able to adjust accordingly - they just need to stay focused.
The more worrisome part is what to do when Marshall isn’t out there. In the limited minutes he’s played White didn’t look like he was ready to run UNC’s normal offense. I think the best we can hope for is for him to get up the ball across mid-court safely and then get it to Barnes or Bullock of Hairston. I think it will be too much to ask him to try to get the ball into the paint.
Obviously the main impact will be felt on the defensive end. Offensively, Strickland is great in transition but was often left alone by the opposition in order to double down inside and clogging the paint. That was a twofold dilemma with he and Marshall on the floor together. Bullock is as capable running but certainly not as fast, but now their is a jumpshooter who needs to be honored. Hairston is capable here as well. Their problems to date were consistency which I think will improve with more minutes that allows for getting into a a rhythm. Bullock will help on the boards as well and can play the three when needed. The additional offensive threats may open the driving lanes more often for Barnes as well. Strickland will definitely be missed and I was looking forward to him dunking over and on the DOOKIES (i.e. Singler posterization)
This is terrible for Dex and I wish him a speedy, full recovery.
To be honest, I think this injury lowers UNC’s ceiling. An NCAAT championship is possible but less probable than before this injury.
* Teams will run at Kendall on both ends, making him work hard to get the ball up the court and will try to get him in foul trouble. On that note, I think this “mix” of Tar Heels might do well in a zone for large portions of games. yes, Roy, I said it.
* Barnes at the 2 guard for stretches sounds like a good plan to me.
* JMM stepping up and playing more like a Kidd-Giltrist instead of a freshman would help. Watts… this is your chance as well.
smh
I feel sad for Strickland, and think that his absence could cost the Heels a game or two.
HP, your comment on running a zone D is interesting, but do you think there’s even a small chance of it happening?
As for the team’s chances to do well (i.e. go to New Orleans) this March, who knows. There’s a lot of basketball yet to be played and losing Dexter may be largely mitigated when the tournaments start. Or not. The dance requires excellent play as well as luck. We might just need more of the latter this year.
Just did a quick search for Division 1 basketball injuries this season, and found that 56 players have gone out, to date, with season-ending injuires (36 knee injuries).
So if you estimate 13 players per team times 345 Division 1 teams (4485 players) that represents about 8 tenths of 1% of players lost to knee injury. This seems reasonably low, but I have nothing to compare it to, nor any idea of what’s typical.
Several teams had multiple season-ending injuries with Southern Cal leading the list with 4 (3 shoulder, 1 knee). Louisville also lost 2 players with knee injuries.
” The problem lies with Strickland and Bullock being different types of defenders. Strickland’s quickness and ability to chase around screens made him very tough for any point/wing guard to get free from. Strickland could also keep these kinds of guards in front of him. Bullock does not possess Strickland’s speed though I do think he really works hard on the on the defensive end. He will have more trouble will smaller, quicker players but aside from that his length and size will bother many opposing guards who are generally smaller. ”
broken record, but if ever there was a tailor-made situation to experiment with the 3-2, here tis. Marshall gets to preserve some energy, and Bullock isn’t square-pegged into a round hole.
It has become necessary to provide young Stilman with a nickname. Some suggestions:
The Hoggard Flash
The Whitest Shadow
Be Stil My Heart
C’mon PLEASE Don’t Turn it Over
OK, Put Kendall Back In
The Minister
The Stilletto
Slow-It-Down Stilman
Just Give It To Barnes
I believe Barnes is going to wind up playing more of a point guard role. He can rotate to doing this a bit more when Marshall is in games and continue when he is out. Barnes has four guys who can play his position including Bullock, Hairston, McAdoo and Watts.
Marshall often starts plays on the wing. If Bullock or Barnes is at the top of the key, initiating drives or inside passes should be fairly straightforward. Also, Marshall’s passing style and thought process has already rubbed off on the other guys. He can more actively work with them to take this role as well.
so…309 teams, lets say per year, lose no one to a knee.
3 of the last 5 basketball seasons, we have.
hm.
someone correct me if my recall of permutations/combinations/statistics is off…
8 tenths of 1% that youd have a player with a season ending knee?
so thats 99.2 that you won’t?
(.992x.992x.008x.008x.008) representing the odds across five seasons…
= .0000005 that youd have 3 of 5?
(my INTJ kicked in. )
This is a real shame for Strickland, and will really hurt the team whenever Stilman White is running the point, but the one potentially positive parallel that comes to mind is Green replacing a lot Ginyard’s minutes in 09. Obviously, Ginyard wasn’t the speed of that team (and Bullock’s game is not nearly as honed as DFG’s was at the time), but he was seen as the defensive stopper…that team made up for it by rolling out an unstoppable offensive force, in part because Green was so much more of an outside threat than Ginyard.
Of course, it didn’t hurt that Lawson was completely unguardable that year. But if Bullock rediscovers his shooting consistency, that’s the silver lining I’m hoping comes out of this situation.
Last year, Virginia Tech had four medical redshirts, Thompson, Hudson, Raines, and Chaney. Chaney was lost permanently and Thompson tore his ACL again this year. That’s about the worst luck I can think of.
gonna change it.
lets say a 12% chance a TEAM will have a player with a season-ending knee. 36/345ish.
for argument’s sake.
(.12x.12x.12x.88x.88)
.0013
seems like very long odds. and we did it.
“AND, what program has had 3 ACLs in a 4 yr/1 month period?
even Robbie Hummel had but two.”
NXSU football?
football? nice. why didnt i think of making a direct comparison to a contact sport?
^^^^^The odds for a team losing or not losing a player are different from the odds of an individual player. Neveretheless, having it happen 3 times in 5 seasons is still pretty rare.
(I see you corrected it.)
^yeah. isnt that crazy tho? its literally 1 in a 1000 chance.
unreal.
I thought the commonly accepted nickname for Stilman was the “Stormin Mormom.” And yes, I’m terrified of him playing significant minutes (significant meaning important, not quantity).
You’ll see some zone, guaranteed, in the future. I don’t know what kind, but something to let Marshall “rest” on defense some and keep him out of foul trouble.
Bullock, everyone’s been clamoring for you to start. Proven them right.
As we talk about, in other statistical discsussions, I suspect there’s probably more to it than just the abstract percentages, once you really break injuries down.(Pardon the pun)
For example, are certain types of athletes, or their style of play, more susceptible to injuries than others? Are they more prone to them because of pre-existing conditions. (Strickland had problems with this knee last season, did he not, and his left knee in HS) And are certain players whose knees give out just doomed, maybe because of their names? (See Rakeem Buckles, Louisville)
So much to consider - so little time to figure it all out.
torn meniscus, yes. no idea how that would affect.
add in the “its the shoes” theory on foot and ankle injuries, and you have the making of a blue helicopters conspiracy.
I’m not at all concerned about Reggie Bullock starting. I think he’ll give the starting five a new dimension by stretching out the defense. Teams got accustomed to packing the defense in the paint with the starters out there, and now you have to respect the three ball with Reggie out there. I also think Bullock is an excellent defender; surely not as quick as Strickland, but I think he’s quick enough and has enough length to give shooters some problems.
Stillman will have to play a lot more minutes now, and I’m hoping he can surprise like another #11 (Quentin Thomas, not SOK) did fairly recently.
Feel free to call me crazy for even thinking about this, but what about a lineup to give Kendall a rest with Barnes, Bullock, Hairston, Henson, and Zeller if Kendall’s in foul trouble or if Stillman isn’t cutting the mustard? Maybe Barnes could be used as a point forward like a Paul Pressey (I must be really showing my age)or LeBron James. Just a thought…..
@HTTE, most of those players were lost to training injuries, not during games or contact portions of practice.
^gotcha.
even 1 more in the next 5 years changes the odds to 1 in 10,000.
so that dadgummit well better be it for a LONG time.
“I believe Barnes is going to wind up playing more of a point guard role.”
You haven’t been reading these types of things, have you?:
http://www.foxsportscarolinas.com/01/20/12/UNC-looking-to-adapt-without-Strickland/landing_acc.html?blockID=650126&feedID=3736
when did Barnes become a trusted ballhandler?
When you finish at the Chris Paul Camp, they give you this certificate that says “You are now a trusted ballhandler”.
FYI Strickland’s Twitter:
“UNC_Basketball RT @DStrick01: Positive thinking! Everything happens for a reason, God always has a plan! Thanks to everyone who is praying for me!”
This probably increases the probability that we will go out before the Elite Eight, but I also think it makes a national title MORE likely. I think it polarizes our probable outcomes. Without Strickland, it is more likely that foul trouble or poor shooting will cause us to lose to teams that we would almost always beat with him. On the other hand, I think hot shooting can allow us to beat the higher quality teams late in the tournament that we wouldn’t beat without the shooting. If you look at national champions, generally the shooting guard is a deep threat. My point is by no means to trash Strickland. He is the ultimate team player, and he will be missed.
Q: What wins basketball games?
A: Quickness.
Q: Who just lost their (by far) quickest player?
A: May I please have a Valium?
And it’s not just the quickness. It’s the brashness, the no-back-down attitude, and, of course, there is really no one else to give Marshall a breather.
What to do? The board has some good suggestions, the best of which, IMHO, is Big Game’s suggestion to try a 3-2. Roy is notorious for resisting that, but the key to success in sports (not to mention everything else) is to meet disaster with adaptability.
Bullock is going to need to sharpen his defense, but the kid has a good attitude, athleticism, and a super basketball body. As THF notes, the dropoff is not that steep.
Yes, we can try using Barnes for defense on the other team’s best shooting guard. This has considerable upsides and downsides. Barnes has not shown the consistent defensive intensity we get from Strickland, but he has shown moments of intensity, and you gotta like the problems his height will create out there. On the other hand, when you take him away from the inside, that is one fewer rebounder, exacerbating our pre-existing problems created by lack of bulk.
Can Watts do anything to help? Probably not, but he’s a senior, has some versatility, and (I suspect) is going to be given a chance to try. It sounds like a Roy sort of thing to do.
Stilman White needs to look in the mirror and tell himself that this is his chance to contribute, actually contribute, to a team that needs for him to grow up fast. The problem with this is that it almost never works; all my experience tells me that people don’t improve simply because they have to. But there are always exceptions.
All-in-all, a very bad and costly break. Still, we shouldn’t be too depressed about it. The second half of the VT game taught us something about the team’s character. They may yet teach us more.
Larry,
I know this idea seems different, but it would be easy to try out. With Marshall on the floor with Barnes, give Barnes the play initiation role.
Barnes has developing attack game and he already frequently brings the ball up. The main issue he has had is giving the ball up when faced to defender or driving into a crowd.
When he has a seam or a screen and he is feeling it, driving is his game.
So don’t be surprised to see this.
Also I do not see how bringing LMac back would help. Keep him in reserve and practicing. But give the rest of his career a chance by not wasting his eligibility.
I’ve been thinking “Is is Thursday yet?”, then decided that it was probably a good thing that they’ve got a few extra days of practice, before the next game, to deal with some of the changes this has brought about.
dookies shocked that the shot clock is out of bounds.
and at 4:33pm, when Jon Kreft had the ball and backed down Murton Plumlee IV, somewhere in the northeast, James Naismith’s great grandson threw up in his mouth, and didnt know why.
talk about awfulest vs awfuler.
I think Barnes is a strong defender when he wants to be and in games that he’s been asked to do so he has delivered. That would affect his offense to be sure but he can be a lock down defender.
Bullock coming in should give us more rebounds, he seems to find the ball around the rim and in the paint when he’s on the court.
Leslie would be a help on the offensive side of the game based on what I saw before he was hurt. Just ripping people apart but I’d rather have him back and healthy for a full year if he’s not ready for weeks.
Many people wanted to see PJ get more minutes, you have your wish. He certainly has the speed, he just needs to focus on his defense. I think he could step it up but so can Bullock. Not many teams would be able to live through this injury, I think we can.
Go Heels
I honestly think this hurts us on the long haul in depth and flexibility. Forget a zone. Roy has too much ego and pride to try that. We will see key stretches of games where Strick will be missed greatly. But, I think the team will miss his leadership, heart, and effort more than his pure basketball skills.
Injuries happen. There are going to be challenges. Again it will take the measure of these guys. Clearly there is the personnel to do it. Ultimately it is up to them.
I think Hubert needs more minutes. You have Hubert play Watts’ post minutes, and you have Watts come in and play minutes on the wing.
Decourcy brings up an interesting fact: In four ACC games, Marshall was given a combined 23 minutes of rest. A team is not likely to lose an NCAA championship based on the performance of its backup point guard.
Read more: http://aol.sportingnews.com/ncaa-basketball/story/2012-01-21/north-carolina-can-thrive-not-just-survive-without-dexter-strickland#ixzz1k8T8uSVX
I read a very interesting article today by DeCourcy. Essentially this team would have never won a championship playing defense. Roy’s teams are not made for that. Even if Strickland was our best perimeter defender, that did not stop or deter perimeter shooters against this team. That really does not say much about his defense or the team’s perimeter defense as a whole.
Where Strickland hurt this team, was in his inability to be a reliable scorer and a perimeter shooter. On a team that has a non-scoring PG and two big men occupying the low post, it makes all the more sense to have scoring SG who can stretch the defense. I was all for Roy giving extended minutes to Bullock. He can drive, shoot and is a darn good defender. It just took an injury to force this decision.
does anyone mind if i punch Mike Patrick in the larynx?
officials with money on dook, apparently. absolutely refuse to call a charge on dook today.
boo-yah!
Duke just got Snaered!!
HTTE, you are absolutely correct. Fear the Spear has the rebuttal, however.
^^^^Carolinablue74,
I posted the article above your post. From my perspective, I completely agree. Defense under Roy Williams is geared to generate transition points. This causes opponents to wear down because they are typically not as deeps as UNC or as athletic. The 2009 team averaged 8.6 steals a game. The 2005 team averaged 9.8 steals a game. This current team averages 7.4 steals a game. Neither the 2009 nor the 2005 team had shot blockers. This team clearly has that. UNC’s field goal percentage allowed is currently in the Top 20. Team’s are shooting 38.5% versus the Tar Heels. UNC was Number 54 in 2009. Teams shot 41%.
The FSU/DUniv game is going to be huge. Even with the officiating ridiculously in their favor, FSU wins again!!
once again, for you high school juniors and seniors…
youre considering dook…why?
the Plumlees COMBINE for 9 FGAs.
everyone else jacked up 23 3s.
not all shots. those are just the 3s.
sounds like fun, huh?
Simple: big men who choose Dook are dumb
If I’m remembering these clock situations correctly, Michael Snaer made 2 threes, ending the 1st and 2nd halves, with a combined total of less than 1 second on the clock. When’s the last time you saw that?
Dook lost at HOME to FSU kind of eases the pain of getting blown out at there place. Some, anyway…..
Are we even discussing Barnes playing point some?
I love Dex, but I’m telling you this will give us a better chance at a deep run in the tourney. It gives a good offensive weapon in the starting lineup. Reg is a scorer and if KM can give us anything close to what he did against VT, we will be just fine. Defense may win championships but more points than your opponent wins games. Go HEELS!
^^^coulda been dook by 12 at half instead of 6, very easily.
Im interested to see how Reggie changes his game from a reserve spot up shooter, to a starter that can play thru mistakes and get into an offensive flow
partsman5521
Yes.
Barnes to the point.
I don’t really get the idea of 1-5 position play. You have players suited to certain roles, but the more overlap that there is the better.
Let Barnes bring the ball up. Let him initiate more offense. Let him drive from the point when he can. He will have a more potent offense with Bullock/Hairston as offensive threats.
The real weakness of UNC this year is inability thus far to score big consistently against highly ranked opposition. I am not just saying this for some post season tournament either.
The ACC is a lot better this year than they have been given credit for. There are going to be plenty of tough games against UVa, NCSU, etc. Not just that Durham team.
no need to rule out some productivity from Stillman White just yet either….. i remember many of the team saying that he was impressing people during the summer pick up games.
the Heels season is not over by a long shot!
Barnes “will not” be able to handle any pressure bring the ball up court. I hope I am proven wrong but my eye’s tell me different…..
Faustus, whenever I hear the added importance of a lockdown perimeter defender I am reminded on the 2008 final four and the misuse of Green and Ginyard. Ginyard was supposed to be the lockdown defender who couldn’t score and Green the 6th man who provided instant offense. Well after the 40-12 debacle there was plenty of raised eyebrows about this claim. In 2009, Green was a starter because Ginyard was injured and the official word was he was not as good a defender. Turns out nothing could be further from the truth. Green was a darned good defender, shot-blocker and scorer, and we won because he was in the starting lineup adding that extra offensive punch from the get go. This year, I believe Reggie will be our Green. Sure he might have few defensive lapses, but overall he is a scorer and this team needs additionally scoring ability against top ranked BCS teams.
“I always said at the beginning of the year that I didn’t want to lose in Cameron,” Rivers said. “This is our house. It hurts even more. It’s one thing to lose on the road, but to lose in here really (ticks) me off
Hold that thought Austin. It’s Hansbrough Indoor Stadium!
carolinablue74
“The real weakness of UNC this year is inability thus far to score big consistently against highly ranked opposition. I am not just saying this for some post season tournament either.”
“I love Dex, but I’m telling you this will give us a better chance at a deep run in the tourney. It gives a good offensive weapon in the starting lineup. Reg is a scorer and if KM can give us anything close to what he did against VT, we will be just fine. Defense may win championships but more points than your opponent wins games. Go HEELS!”
hellooooooooooooo. +1
Stillman the dealman will do just fine.
The efficiency advantage/disadvantage trade off between Strickland and Bullock ideally will end up be no worse than a wash, and it could…maybe…. be a positive if Reggie really picks it up on offense and answers the call on D.
Where the precarious balance lies now is in any foul or injury trouble to Marshall and, to a lesser degree, in overall team efficiency and energy. Losing 23-24 MPG of quality “energy minutes” is not insignificant.
Talent and effectiveness aside, the team also got a good bit younger. That’s probably the thing I hate most about Strickland’s loss - his experience.